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A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

  • J. C. Refsgaard
  • H. Madsen
  • V. Andréassian
  • K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
  • T. A. Davidson
  • M. Drews
  • D. P. Hamilton
  • E. Jeppesen
  • E. Kjellström
  • J. E. Olesen
  • T. O. Sonnenborg
  • D. Trolle
  • P. Willems
  • Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftClimatic Change
Vol/bind122
Udgave nummer1-2
Sider (fra-til)271-282
Antal sider12
ISSN0165-0009
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2014
Eksternt udgivetJa

ID: 186939666