Forskning ved Københavns Universitet - Københavns Universitet

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A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftInternational Journal of Forecasting
Vol/bind18
Udgave nummer1
Sider (fra-til)19-30
Antal sider12
ISSN0169-2070
DOI
StatusUdgivet - jan. 2002
Eksternt udgivetJa

ID: 235072701