Forskning ved Københavns Universitet - Københavns Universitet


A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. II. Optimization model

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological improvements. The biological model of the replacement model is described in a previous paper and in this paper the optimization model is described. The model is developed as a prototype for use under practical conditions. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Danish sow herds. It is concluded that the Bayesian updating technique and the hierarchical structure decrease the size of the state space dramatically. Since parameter estimates vary considerably among herds it is concluded that decision support concerning sow replacement only makes sense with parameters estimated at herd level. It is argued that the multi-level formulation and the standard software comprise a flexible tool and a shortcut to working prototypes
TidsskriftLivestock Science
Udgave nummer1
Sider (fra-til)25-36
Antal sider12
StatusUdgivet - 2004

ID: 11482234