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Error diagrams and temporal correlations in a fracture model with characteristic and power-law distributed avalanches

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  • Y. Moreno
  • M. Vázquez-Prada
  • A.F. Pacheco
  • J.B. Gómez
  • Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet
Forecasting failure events is one of the most important problems in fracture mechanics and related sciences. In this paper, we use the Molchan scheme to investigate the error diagrams in a fracture model which has the notable advantage of displaying two completely different regimes according to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime, there are non-trivial temporal correlations associated to clustering of large events. Finally, we extend the discussion to seismology, where both kinds of avalanche size distributions can be seen.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEuropean Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems
Vol/bind34
Udgave nummer4
Sider (fra-til)489-494
Antal sider6
ISSN1434-6028
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 1 aug. 2003

ID: 45878706