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Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

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  • M. Vázquez-Prada
  • A. Pacheco
  • Á. González
  • J.B. Gómez
  • Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftNonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Vol/bind10
Udgave nummer6
Sider (fra-til)565-571
Antal sider7
ISSN1023-5809
StatusUdgivet - 1 nov. 2003

ID: 45878740