Forskning ved Københavns Universitet - Københavns Universitet


Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

  • Lars Folkestad
  • Michael Gejl Jensen
  • Mikkel Brabrand
  • Dan Brun Petersen
  • Peter Hallas
  • Torben Knudsen
We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).
TidsskriftUgeskrift for Laeger
Udgave nummer51
Sider (fra-til)3775-9
Antal sider5
StatusUdgivet - 14 dec. 2009

ID: 34188570