Forskning ved Københavns Universitet - Københavns Universitet


Samfundsøkonomisk cost-benefit-analyse af de forventede effekter af multifunktionel jordfordeling ved Glenstrup Sø

Publikation: Bog/antologi/afhandling/rapportRapportForskning

In January 2015, the foundation of Realdania launched a Collective Impact initiative to explore how the idea of Collective Impact processes could derive a bottom-up driven process for reallocation of agricultural land using land consolidation to provide a multifunctional land-use and, thus, support a more sustainable production and societal and local values. Initially, three real-life pilot studies were initiated and eventually followed by a fourth in the catchment area of Lake Glenstrup in the municipality of Mariagerfjord, DK. Lake Glenstrup is a 4.5 km long lake, covering 384 ha and with a maximal depth of 31 meters. In this report, we present results from an ex ante socioeconomic cost-benefit analysis which has been conducted to explore the expected socioeconomic effects of the multifunctional land consolidation process in the catchment area of Lake Glenstrup. The cost-benefit analysis comprises both marketed and non-marketed goods. Effects on marketed goods, such as the agricultural production of food, are based on marked prices, while effects on non-marketed goods are quantified using benefit transfer and shadow prices. The analysis only includes effects that follow directly from the land consolidation process. This means, that potentially derived effects in the supply and processing sectors are not considered. The cost-benefit analysis is conducted for a case area of 575 ha around Lake Glenstrup. The land-use of approximately 140 ha is expected to change from agricultural land in rotation to permanent grassland, P-buffer zones, afforestation, and establishment of an orchard with recreational purpose. A further 200 ha of agricultural land are expected to enter the land consolidation process leading to an improved productivity and reduced externalities in the shape of transport with agricultural vehicles on public roads. The results show a socioeconomic net benefit of 18 million DKK calculated as NPV over a 20 years’ time horizon with a discount rate of 4 percent. The main costs and benefits are (1) a total cost of 18,5 million DKK from changes of agricultural land-use, (2) recreational and environmental benefits of 35 million DKK and (3) net contribution from other effects of 1,5 million DKK. Sensitivity analyses show that the recreational effects and the effects on greenhouse gases and P constitute the main benefits of the project. Furthermore, we find that the results in terms of a positive NPV are robust to changes of the key benefits.
ForlagInstitut for Fødevare- og Ressourceøkonomi, Københavns Universitet
Antal sider49
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-87-93768-17-8
StatusUdgivet - 2019
NavnIFRO Rapport

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