Forskning ved Københavns Universitet - Københavns Universitet


Using synchronization to improve the forecasting of large relaxations in a cellular-automaton model

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikel

  • Á. González
  • J.B. Gómez
  • M. Vázquez-Prada
  • A.F. Pacheco
  • Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet
A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of synchronization, developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of the largest relaxations in the so-called Minimalist Model.
Udgave nummer5
Sider (fra-til)611-617
Antal sider7
StatusUdgivet - 1 dec. 2004

ID: 45878672